Investigation of Climate Change Consequences on Mangroves and Saltmarshes of Hara (Avicennia Marina) Biosphere Reserve of Gheshm Island

Mangroves and saltmarshes, by locating in the transitional zone between land and sea, are exposed to adverse consequences of climate change which leads to increase vulnerability and reduce resiliency of these ecosystems to the occurrence of various environmental stresses and disturbances. Hence, analysis of the changes occurred in these ecosystems is one of the main prerequisites for the efficiency and success of their conservation and development programs. Therefore, the aim of this study is to assess the relationship between reduced rainfall and drought occurrence and changes in the areas of mangroves and saltmarshes of Hara biosphere using satellite images and long-term rainfall data over a 30-year period. The results showed that based on the 30-year time series of SPI values and annual rainfall data, 1998 was the main change point in annual rainfall data trend and rainfall pattern changes in the study area. So that in the period after 1998, reduce the amount of rainfall and drought occurrence in the area had more intensity. Results also showed that there was a high correlation between mangroves and saltmarshes area changes and the changes of drought occurrence intensity during the 30-year period. Based on this, the trend of increasing or decreasing the extent of these ecosystems was accordance with the changes of drought occurrence intensity during the 30-year period and with the continuous drought in the period after 1998, changes in the extent of mangroves and saltmarshes has been a decreasing trend.