Forecasting of desertification of Kerman plain, based on the climate criterion in 1409 using IMDPA model

Desertification is one of the major challenges of the 21st century. Destruction of water resources, degradation of soil, as well as degradation of vegetation is desertification symptoms. This challenge is not restricted to dry areas, but can be applied in all regions, especially dry, semi-arid, and humid areas. Destroy the affected environment. Therefore, knowledge of its severity can play a significant role in water resource management. In this study, the IMDPA model, which is native to Iran, has been used to predict the desertification of Kerman plain in terms of climate criterion in 1409. Study of climate criteria and its score in the study area is from three indicators of annual precipitation, SPI drought index and drought persistence index. Using predicted precipitation values ​​by LARS-WG model and IMDPA model, the annual precipitation index score was 3.8, the index of drought persistence index was 0.7 and the SPI index was estimated 3.5 points. In the GIS environment, all indicator mapping maps it was drawn up.
The results showed that the annual rainfall index is very severe in the desertification class, the index of drought persistence in the low desertification class, and the SPI drought index in the severe desertification class are located, and the geometric mean of these indicators and their synthesis intensity The desertification of the area on the horizon of 1409 is in severe class. The results of this study can help in the management of desertification processes in the region.