Developing A Model to Enhance Iran's National Interests by the Oil Supply System in the World Market: A Systems Approach

An examination of international political economy history shows that discovery of huge oil reservoirs has been playing an important role in defining and supporting the countries national interest. Undoubtedly, oil reserves in Iran are considered as intergenerational resources and maintaining intergenerational justice as well as enhancing national interest in the long run. These are indisputable commitments which are the main goals and missions of Iran governors. In this research, focusing on the economic aspect of the national interest and by using systems dynamic methodology, dynamics changes of Iran’s national interest are modelled considering developments in the oil industry and market. The structure of production capacity formation, amount of production and revenues of domestic and international sale of oil and oil products are investigated and modeled and variables related to economic national interest are formulated. Simulation results described in five scenarios as follows: growth in the oil market, current status, downturn in the oil market, OPEC market share target, and OPEC revenue target. According to results, increase in domestic prices of energy carriers to international prices and the increase of the budget share for investment in more value added areas in the oil industry are recommended to increase national economic benefits.