Investigation of climate change effect on runoff in Tajan River Basin, Mazandaran

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Article Type:
Research/Original Article (دارای رتبه معتبر)
Abstract:
Climate scientists have concluded that the earth surface temperature has increased severely in recent years and it has been foreseen that this trend will continue in 21st century and along with changes in hydrologic cycle of watersheds will also continue. Climate change in the studied area (Tajan) is an important subject, because this region is an important source of water supply in Sari City (center of Mazandaran Province) for different uses. For this purpose the non-parametric Mann–Kendall test is used to detect the trend of major hydroclimatic variables and Kendall’s τ test is applied to detect correlation between temperature and precipitation with runoff in the Tajan River Basin. The results showed that three mean annual precipitation, evaporation and runoff experienced a decreasing trend with the amount of 249mm, 182mm and 75mm respectively, while annual air temperature demonstrated an increasing trend by 0.42 ˚C. Decreasing trend of precipitation and evaporation is significant in %1 probability level, and decreasing trend of runoff and increasing trend of temperature is not significant. The test of correlation between temperature and precipitation with runoff showed that correlation of precipitation and runoff with respect to correlation of temperature and runoff is higher, and one can say that precipitation variations has more effect on runoff variations. Also, in this study, in relation to effect of land use changes on runoff, the annual and seasonal water balance during the time duration has been investigated and it was shown that in addition to undeniable effect of climate change, the land use changes also can increase and decrease runoff in different seasons into two different shape.
Language:
Persian
Published:
Whatershed Management Research, Volume:27 Issue: 102, 2014
Page:
138
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