Designing Attraction of Intervention Matrix (AIM) (Case study of interventionist actors in Syria)

Actor analysis is one of the most important methods in futures studies, actor analysis has a special status independently and with combination to other methods especially with scenario planning methods. Aim of this article is to design an actor analysis model based on stakeholders’ analysis models in management fields and specific actor analysis models in futures studies filed, in order to develop this model main factors from current models were discovered then the mentioned model was developed according to confirmed factors. Research methodology was based on Lynham’s methodology and data were collected from current theory and 14 expert's opinion which gathered from individual interview and expert panel. Results lead us to design attraction of intervention matrix (AIM) based on four index, power, type, tendency and time of actor intervention. This matrix categorizes actors into 5 area contain invaders, defenders, allies, merchants and hesitant and gain capability of actor analysis and strategy development. Attraction of intervention matrix was applied in Syria case in order to peruse capability of model in a real case, in order to rank actors, we used 5 methods including Simple Additive Method, Linear Assignment Method, TOPSIS, Taxonomy and Friedman test and utilized Copland methods to merge outcomes. Eventually results reveled in attraction of intervention matrix and 7 key actors including 5 allies (with positive strong power and continually intervention) and 2 invaders (with negative strong power and continually intervention) were marked and other actors were in groups with weaker power and delay in intervention.