Prioritizing the Power Arrival in Khuzestan Province Agriculture using FAHP and FTOPSIS

Understanding the status of tractor power in any region is a key factor in setting a mechanization planning to improve the capacity of mechanized operations. For this reason, it is necessary that the available tractor power in each region meet the needs of agricultural operations in the most demanding time of cropping season in terms of operations related to machinery. The objective of this study is needs assessment and prioritizing the power arrival in the agriculture of Khuzestan province. Required data, such as the number of tractors, areas under crop cultivation, size and number of farmlands, and crop yield were collected from the beginning of the first economic, social and cultural development plan until the end of the fifth development plan. Given to peak of operations, working hours per day and the probability of working days, input power required for each county was calculated. To determine the priorities for arrival power to counties, four criteria, including mechanization level shortage, percentage of obsolete tractors, the harmonic mean of production and area (ha) per tractor ratio (ha/tractor) were applied using TOPSIS-AHP based approach. Technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS) is one of the strongest methods in multi-criteria decision making. This method is based on the calculation of geometric distance of alternatives from positive ideal solution and negative ideal solution. Analytical hierarchy process (AHP) was used for weighting to criteria. AHP is one of the most famous multi-criteria decision making methods which has been used to estimate a total score for each criterion, compare indices using pairwise comparison and assess their score for one criterion. AHP is based on the decision-maker experience and knowledge. But since decision-makers rely on their mental ability and experience for doing comparisons, for reasons such as inadequate knowledge and information, complexity of the problem, lack of confidence in decision-making environment and lack of a proper scale, they are not able to express their preferences in the form of pure numbers. So conventional AHP has not enough potential for working based on human thinking style. For solving this problem, the theory of fuzzy sets can be used. Based on the results, 6682 tractors with theoretical power equivalent as 75 hp should be added to provincial fleet to ensure timely agricultural operations in Khuzestan province. The required 75-hp tractor units are 1163, 750 and 742 for Dasht-e Azadegan, Andimeshk and Ahvaz, respectively and Abadan, Khoramshahr, Shadegan, Shushtar, Shush, Andika, Bavi, Behbahan and Hendijan did not need to import any new power due to higher theoretical power available compared to required power. The needs difference of counties came from the difference between counties area under cultivation in the peak work area. Almost there was one tractor per 50-ha area under cultivation in the province. Mechanization level was calculated as 1.2 hp ha-1. Based on the tractor classification by Mechanization Development Center, tractors over 13 years age are known as obsolete, so mechanization level could be reached down to 0.7 hp ha-1 by eliminating these tractors that included 40% of total tractors in the province. Coefficient of variation related to the mechanization level of counties was calculated as 47% that indicates imbalance between provincial regions. The average of variation coefficient of farm lands was obtained as 301.96 % for the province. Also correlation between mechanization level and coefficient of variation of farmlands was -0.436 in 5% level. In order to determine the priorities for importing power to each region of Khuzestan province, the ratio of area under cultivation (ha) to tractor unit assigned highest weight (0.3, 0.41, 0.54). Gotvand, Andimeshk, Izeh and Bagh-e Malek, had highest priority for importing power, respectively. Results indicate an inappropriate distribution of tractors without considering the actual local need for them. Appropriate distribution of power is more important than quantitative distribution of tractors in Khuzestan province, because power in some regions is more than required power that cause wasting capital. In opposite, the shortage of power resources in the peak of workload in other regions, cause timeliness costs for farmer. Based on this, a necessity for regional planning is felt in the provincial strategic plans to make appropriate and coherent environments.