Investigation of the Nonlinear Effects of Non-Oil Exports Determinants in Iran Using a Model with Variable Parameters over Time of TVP-VAR

Considering the importance of non-cash exports in Iran's economy, in this study using a nonlinearmethod, the effect of factors affecting non-oil exports of the country which have been emphasized in empirical and theoretical studies including real exchange rate, economy growth, and degree of openness of the economy has carefully been studied. Using the annual data between the years 1347 and 1395 and the TVP-VAR model, Iran's non-oil exports were modeled. Based on the results of the research, the effect of the variables on the growth of non-oil exports during the study period changed, so that the effects of economic growth rate, openness of economy and growth of non-oil exports on non-oil exports were positive with slight changes in the variables. During the period under consideration, while the effects of the exchange rate on non-oil exports changed more strongly, it was negative in the years 1351 to 1356 and 1372 to 1395, but it turned out to be positive in the years 1357 to 1371. The results of the present research indicate the role of the composition of the exported goods of the country and the conditions governing the economy of the country in shaping and influencing the model variables on non-oil exports.