Prioritizing Expantion of Agricultural Activities to Increase Employment in Iran

The present study conducted to specify agricultural activities having prioriety in achieving employment growth rate targeted in the sixth National Economic, Social, and Cultural Development Plan in Iran. To this end, a regional mathematical programing model for agricultural sector is integrated with a mixed model of social accouting matrix to connect national employment objective to the regional agricultural production inputs constraint. Using such an integrated model, it is poosible to specify what activities and in what provinces have the prioriety to be expanded and are more helpful in achieving national employment objective. Results indicate that to reach 3.9 percent employment growth rate specified in the sixth national plan, a growth rate of 4.4 percent in agricultural sector is required. The growth rate in farming, horticulture, livestock, and fisheries subsectors are 4.8, 2.3, 6.8, and 4.3 percent, respectively. Results also reveal that wheat with 8.3 percent and rice with 0.1 percent have the highest and lowest priority, respectively, for expansion in the crops sub-sector. In this sub-sector, Khuzestan, Ardebil and Fars provinces have the highest priority for this crop.to be considered. In the horticultural sub-sector, plum product has the highest proriety to be expanded by a growth rates of 3.5% and tea product has the lowest peroriety to be expanded with a growth rate of 0.3 percent. In this sub-sector, the provinces of Fars, Mazandaran and East and West Azarbaijan have the highest priority to be considered for development of horticultural activities. Regarding livestock, poultry and aquaculture products, results show that a more peroriety must be given to the beef production relative to the carp production. Mazandaran, Khuzestan, Gilan, Chaharmahal Bakhtiari and Lorestan are the provinces with the highest priority in the development of aquaculture activities. However, the development of livestock and poultry activities does not differ significantly between provinces of the country.