Precipitation Trend Analysis and Drought Assessment of Jazmorian Basin Using Trend Analysis Methods and Optimized Drought Indices

Precipitation temporal trend analysis and study of the drought condition have been of great concern during the past century because of the attention given to global climate change by the scientific community. The aim of present study was to investigate and analyze the rainfall trends and its affected drought conditions in Jazmurian basin using non-parametric mann-kendall method and multidimensional comparison of drought indices including Standardized Precipitation (SPI), deciles (DI), the percentage of normal (PNI), Chinese Z (CZI) and the Z score (ZSI) with rainfall data from 24 gauged stations for the period of 1983 to 2013. For this, the drought indices were calculated, and then categorization was performed on the basis of similarity and correlation using cluster analysis method. The results proved a positive and significant increase in the rainfall amount of 1992-1993 and 1995-1996 years. Statistical analysis showed that the highest amount of rainfall occurred in the years of 1992-93, 1995-96 and 2004-2005 and the lowest in the years of 1983, 2000, 2003 and 2005 in the basin. Cluster analysis showed that the ZSI and PN indices with similarity of hundred percent in the diagnosis of wet and dry periods, intensity, duration and continuity were completely similar and had the highest similarity among all the groups. The CZI and SPI with 99.5 percent similarity were in the second level of similarity as well. Validation of the results through the numerical comparison of SPI and CZI indicates the same trend of two indicators and little differences in presenting the drought conditions of Jazmorian basin. However, in assessing the severity of droughts, CZI showed more severe drought condition. Overall, the results showed a greater focus of the drought in the southern east and southern parts of the basin indicating the high probability of drought occurrence potential of the basin. Therefore, the study of drought through CZI and SPI indices in the basin of Jazmorian is suggested for the proper policy making and management of water resources regarding conservation and increasing of the productivity from environmental, economic and social point of views.