Investigating The Role of Risk Grouping in Analyzing The Effects of Government Policies on The Cultivation Pattern of Nahavand And Bahar in Hamedan Province

Due to problems such as high risk, water resources constraints, environmental problems and low technology levels in the agricultural sector, policy-making in this sector requires major revision. according to this, accordingly the main purpose of this research is to analyze the impact of policies and factors such as reducing water resources, reducing the use of fertilizer and developing mechanization on the farming model of Hamedan province, taking into account risk conditions and using a positive math planning approach. Based on the coefficient of variation of the cities, Nahavand and Bahar were selected as the Low risk and riskiest city. According to the results, with decreasing of water resources, barley cultivation in Nahavand and alfalfa remained constant in the Bahar city and wheat and corn in Bahar city and alfalfa in Nahavand were eliminated from the crop pattern. Water sensitivity analysis showed that by saving 55 percent of water consumption, the production level, and current profit could be reached. Due to the policy of reducing fertilizer use in the Bahar city, the level of fixed hay and wheat, maize and barley are eliminated from the cultivar model, but in Nahvand it does not change the cultivar pattern, which showed that the sensitivity analysis of fertilizer limits showed a decrease of 40% The use of fertilizer, the pattern of cultivation will not change. In the Bahar, with the policy of mechanization development, the level of cultivation of wheat and maize, the increase in barley and alfalfa and potatoes is constant, but in Nahavand, alfalfa, wheat, and barley, maize is increasing, and potatoes remain constant like Bahar city. Also, by applying this scenario, the total profit in the Bahar city has increased and declined in the city of Nahavand. Therefore, the Nahavand area needs less mechanization development. The results of this study showed that the high risk of production in each region leads to risk of policy implementation. This means that significant changes in yield and, consequently, greater risk will make farmers more sensitive to changing the current situation and imposing constraints and implementing the policies expressed.