Simulation of Temperature and Precipitation Changes in the Urmia Lake Basin Through SDSM Downscaling Model
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Article Type:
Research/Original Article (دارای رتبه معتبر)
Abstract:
Temperature and precipitation are among the most important elements playing major roles in the study of climate change. These parameters have particular importance on water resources and natural ecosystems and also environmental, economic and social impacts. So in this research, we are about to simulate changes of temperature and precipitation in the Urmia Lake Basin where is facing environmental crisis and risk of drying is discussed for 2011- 2030 period. It was done by SDSM downscaling model. Meteorological stations evaluated are including four stations Saghez, Tabriz, Khoy and Urmia where have had full datum in the base period (1990 -1961). In the study, first of all, the efficiency of SDSM model was evaluated using observed data and station renovated data of National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). Indices such as MSE, RMSE, MAE and the coefficient of determination and correlation were used. After ensuring the accuracy of the simulation model, climate parameters (rainfall, minimum and maximum temperature) was simulated using general circulation HadCM3 model under two scenarios A2 and B2 within 2030 for the study area. The results showed that the model has relevant ability to simulate temperature and rainfall. Based on the results of HadCM3 temperature and precipitation would be increased during 2020s (2011 -2030), comparing to the base period. In fact, minimum and maximum temperatures would be increased 29.7 mm, 0.3 and 1.4 degrees respectively.
Language:
Persian
Published:
Geographic Space, Volume:18 Issue: 64, 2019
Pages:
41 to 60
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