System dynamics and Iran's population changes

Iran has experienced significant demographic changes over the last three decades. The fertility rate of 7 children in the 1360s reached 1.8 in 1390 before rising to around 2.1 in 1395; as it has been told Iran has the sharpest fall of fertility in the world.
This article aims to investigate population complexity deeply in regard to other social economic sub-systems, with multi-dimensional nonlinear view provided by system dynamics. Simulation initial time is 1361 and continues until 1425. Population subsystem consist of four aging cohorts; fertility and life expectancy considered endogenous. The results show, in two scenarios, TFR will never become less than 1.75 children per woman till 1425. According to the simulation results of different scenarios, the effects of most policies will be fully apparent after several years. As time goes on, the policy effects will be reduced, so policy packages need to be updated to further impact.