The comparison of explanatory power of Hou et al. four-factor model and Fama and French’s five-factor model to forecast expected return

The purpose of this paper is to examine the explanatory power of Hou et al. four-factor model and Fama and French’s five-factor model to predict the expected stock return in listed companies in Tehran Stock Exchange. For this purpose, a sample consisting of 147 firms during the period of 2006 to 2015 has been selected. To analyze the data, descriptive and inferential statistics were incorporated and to test the research hypotheses, multiple regression approach with the pooled data approach through the software’s Eviews and Stata has been used. The findings indicate that the adjusted coefficient of determination, which shows the explanatory power of their two models together, is equal. The mean squared error and mean absolute error of both models also are not significantly different. Thus, the results demonstrated that in the course of the study, the explanatory power of the French’s five-factor model with Hou et al. four-factor model, in anticipation of expected returns is not significantly different from each other.  Therefore, investors can use both models to predict expected returns to form their investment portfolio.