Estimating the rebound effect of electricity consumption in Iran: Threshold Level Approach

The literature on energy economics states a rebound effect of improving energy efficiency. Considering the fact that existing rebound effect causes the electricity saving (due to the improvement of the efficiency of consumer electric appliances in the residential sector) be less than expected, therefore, the present paper, based on the time series data of 1357-1395, uses linear and nonlinear (threshold) models to estimate the direct rebound effect of residential electricity consumption in different scenarios. The results of linear model show that the direct rebound effect of residential electricity consumption in Iran during the period 1357-1395 is on average 81%. The results of the other model (threshold model), taking into account the two variables of Gross domestic product (GDP) per capita and cooling degree days (CDD) as threshold variables, show that decrease in GDP per capita and increase in cooling degree days will increase the direct rebound effect of residential electricity consumption.