The Scenarios ahead of Syria and the Security of Iran

The Middle East is deemed as an “unfinished region” due to numerous changes in its structure since its formation. Although Arabic uprisings, since 2011, derived from earlier historical trends, their dimensions are big enough to be considered as the beginning of a new “historical process” like what took place after the World War I. Their impacts on important issues such as violence, extremism, politically motivated terrorism, regional proxy wars, classical and modern competitions among international powers and attempts to shape the new strategic politics by regional powers are easily discernible. Since Syria is Iran’s strategic ally, its future matters to Iran. This paper aims to consider probable outcomes of Syria conflict in the form of possible scenarios and its associated consequences for the security of the Islamic Republic of Iran. In order to estimate possible scenarios, the realist approach has been taken.