Aging and Economic Growth
Message:
Article Type:
Research/Original Article (دارای رتبه معتبر)
Abstract:
Objectives
 Demographic changes is one of the important issues affecting economic growth. The demographic structure can affect investment, savings, consumption, and ultimately economic growth. The present study aims to analyze the effect of the age structure of the population (by emphasis on aging) on the growth of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita in Iran. 
Methods & Materials
 This study has been investigated by library research method, using Iranian economic data published by Central Bank of Islamic Republic of Iran and Statistical Center of Iran and United Nation in 2018. In this research, the autoregressive distributed lag model method was used to investigate the effect of the population age structure on the economic growth of Iran in the period between 1987 and 2017.
Results
 The results indicate that the effect of the growth of 0-14 year’s old population is insignificant on the economic growth in the short term. The effect of the growth rate of population aged 14-64 years is positive and significant on economic growth, in both the short and long term. Also, the effect of the growth rate of the population older than 64 years on economic growth is negative and significant in the long term (r=-1.37). All variables are stationary and only two variables, including the growth rate of the people over 64 to the total population and the growth rate of the 0 to 14 year’s people to the total population are at the stationary level, and their first-order difference will be stationary. 
Conclusion
 An increase in the share of older than 64 years old people can slow down the economic growth in the country in the long term. In other words, increase in the proportion of this consumer group, reduces the marginal propensity to saving, thus makes the formation of capital troubled, and reduces capital per capita, so it will have a negative effect on economic growth.
Language:
English
Published:
Iranian Journal of Ageing, Volume:13 Issue: 52, 2019
Pages:
626 to 637
magiran.com/p1970917  
دانلود و مطالعه متن این مقاله با یکی از روشهای زیر امکان پذیر است:
اشتراک شخصی
با عضویت و پرداخت آنلاین حق اشتراک یک‌ساله به مبلغ 990,000ريال می‌توانید 70 عنوان مطلب دانلود کنید!
اشتراک سازمانی
به کتابخانه دانشگاه یا محل کار خود پیشنهاد کنید تا اشتراک سازمانی این پایگاه را برای دسترسی نامحدود همه کاربران به متن مطالب تهیه نمایند!
توجه!
  • حق عضویت دریافتی صرف حمایت از نشریات عضو و نگهداری، تکمیل و توسعه مگیران می‌شود.
  • پرداخت حق اشتراک و دانلود مقالات اجازه بازنشر آن در سایر رسانه‌های چاپی و دیجیتال را به کاربر نمی‌دهد.
دسترسی سراسری کاربران دانشگاه پیام نور!
اعضای هیئت علمی و دانشجویان دانشگاه پیام نور در سراسر کشور، در صورت ثبت نام با ایمیل دانشگاهی، تا پایان فروردین ماه 1403 به مقالات سایت دسترسی خواهند داشت!
In order to view content subscription is required

Personal subscription
Subscribe magiran.com for 50 € euros via PayPal and download 70 articles during a year.
Organization subscription
Please contact us to subscribe your university or library for unlimited access!