Spatial and temporal simulation of rainfall in the Shoor basin under climate change

In this research, by presenting a new method using the generalized linear model, the long term effects of climate change on rainfall changes in the Shoor basin under B1, A2 and A1B scenarios were investigated in three periods of 30 years up to 2090 horizons Using the data of daily precipitation and monthly temperature in the base period (1971-2000) in 13 synoptic stations, using generalized linear models, the incident model and the amount of precipitation simulated and used for fine Exponential scale of GCM model data was used. Of the 20 models provided by the CCCSN database, a wide range of climate change changes were introduced. The generalized linear models, by linking the climate and rainfall variables, provide a fine-scale scaling-up of the outputs of the GCM models. The results of the implementation of the generalized linear model show that only two models of INGV-SXG, BCM2.0 are suitable for producing future scenario scenarios. The results also indicate a decrease in rainfall and a rise in temperature in the coming periods. The highest percentage of monthly rainfall reduction has taken place in the summer season than the base period. Accordingly, the maximum average monthly precipitation during the period 2030-2001, 25.22%, during the 2031-2060 period, 37.5% and 2061-2061, between 35.58% and the base period of the forecast It will be.