A Capability Assessment of the SDSM Model to Simulate Mean Temperature of Urmia City

Climate modeling is one of the fundamental methods of simplifying the complexity of the climate that can increase our understanding of the system’s behavior. Climate simulating through using the outputs of general circulation models in order to be aware of the characteristics of the climate, will be required in the coming years. The achievements of general circulation models cannot be used directly in regional and smaller-scale climate simulations. A common way to solve this problem is by statistically downscaling the output of general circulation models. SDSM is one of the most practical models in the mentioned fields. In this study, attempts are made to assess the ability of the SDSM in downscaling and simulating the temperature data of Urmia since the beginning of 1961 until the end of 2010 using National Emergency Communications Plan’s re-analyzed data and the outputs of HadCM3 under A2 and B2 scenarios. To assess the adequacy of the models obtained and the SDSM’s ability to simulate, some statistical tests such as the Chow test, the standard error, Wilmot index compatibility and also monthly and annual diagrammed data have been used. The results of this study show that the greater the time period is, the more preferable and closer to reality the simulated mean temperature will be. However the SDSM model’s function is inadequate in simulating the maximums and minimums. Therefore the achievements of this model are suitable only to obtain a general understanding of the characteristics of future climate and they cannot be used in precise projects.