Probability of SDS Days Prediction in Iran’s Eastern Region Using Spatio-Temporal Indicator Kriging model
Message:
Article Type:
Research/Original Article (دارای رتبه معتبر)
Abstract:
Probability of SDS Days Prediction in Iran’s Eastern Region Using Spatio-Temporal Indicator Kriging model AbstractOne of the most important environmental challenges in the Middle East and Iran in recent years is the increasing SDS phenomenon. In order to forecast the probability of SDS days, wind speed and Horizontal view data in the eastern regions of Iran was investigated using Kriging model of Spatial-Temporal indicator,and R software, in which indicators one and zero were considered for a SDS and for a day without SDS, respectively. Then the SP Data array (Spatial Temporal Data) was constructed with a combination of the matrix and vector in the STFDF class (Spatial Temporal Function Data Frame), and STF class (Spatial Temporal Function). After fitting all the separable and non-separable models, the sum metric variogram with the least average of sum of squares was selected as the best model for fitting data. The output of the model showed that the data enjoy a spatial-temporal dependence to 5 days, so from the last day of the statistical period we can forecast the probability of occurrence of the SDS day for the next 5 days. On the first forecast able day, i.e. 2017/04/01, the critical points of Sarakhs and Fariman stations in Razavi Khorasan province with a probability of 16 and 20 percent, respectively, Zabol, Zahak, Mirjawa, Nosrat Abad, Zahedan and Khash stations in Sistan and Baluchestan provice with 17, 13.13, 19.24 and 17 percent, respectively, and finally Abarkuh, Bafgh and Behabad stations in Yazd province with 20, 16 and 35 percent, respectively, enjoyed the highest probability of occurrence of SDS days. Keywords:Spatial-Temporal Variogram, Predict, SDS Days, Eastern Rregions of Iran, Kriging Indicator, Sand and Dust Storm(SDS), Region, Indicator Kriging Method, SDS.
Language:
Persian
Published:
Journal of Natural environment hazards, Volume:8 Issue: 20, 2019
Pages:
197 to 215
magiran.com/p1978201  
دانلود و مطالعه متن این مقاله با یکی از روشهای زیر امکان پذیر است:
اشتراک شخصی
با عضویت و پرداخت آنلاین حق اشتراک یک‌ساله به مبلغ 990,000ريال می‌توانید 70 عنوان مطلب دانلود کنید!
اشتراک سازمانی
به کتابخانه دانشگاه یا محل کار خود پیشنهاد کنید تا اشتراک سازمانی این پایگاه را برای دسترسی نامحدود همه کاربران به متن مطالب تهیه نمایند!
توجه!
  • حق عضویت دریافتی صرف حمایت از نشریات عضو و نگهداری، تکمیل و توسعه مگیران می‌شود.
  • پرداخت حق اشتراک و دانلود مقالات اجازه بازنشر آن در سایر رسانه‌های چاپی و دیجیتال را به کاربر نمی‌دهد.
دسترسی سراسری کاربران دانشگاه پیام نور!
اعضای هیئت علمی و دانشجویان دانشگاه پیام نور در سراسر کشور، در صورت ثبت نام با ایمیل دانشگاهی، تا پایان فروردین ماه 1403 به مقالات سایت دسترسی خواهند داشت!
In order to view content subscription is required

Personal subscription
Subscribe magiran.com for 50 € euros via PayPal and download 70 articles during a year.
Organization subscription
Please contact us to subscribe your university or library for unlimited access!