Spatial dynamics of Phlebotomus sand-fly ecological condition in response to climate change

Changing the climatic pattern can lead to major changes in the geographical distribution of infectious diseases. The aim of this study was to investigate the effect of climate change on the favorable bio-climatological zone for leishmaniasis sand-fly living which is a vector of Leishmania in Iran. Data of the climatic factors affecting the biology of sandflies during 1986-2016 were obtained. The climate thresholds for the sand-fly living were prepared on the basis of laboratory studies. Using Boolean algebra in GIS, the favorable bio-climatological sites of sand-fly in Iran were prepared in the basic period of climate (2016-1986). The climatic conditions of 2050 were simulated using the output of the general circulation model HADGEM2-AO under four scenarios RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6, RCP8.5 and the bio-climatological zones of the sand flies were re-created using the Boolean algebra function in GIS, based on simulated climatic factors. The results showed that in the climatic conditions of the base period, about 0.64 of the Iran's area includes the central and southern and southwestern parts of Iran, has the climatic conditions of sandflies. While in the simulated climate of 2050 under RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6, and RCP8.5 scenarios, it will be favorable for living of this vector about 0.63, 0.68, 0.61 and 0.67 of Iran’s area, respectively. Spatial variations of bio-climatological zones of Phlebotomus sandflies in RCP6 scenario had the highest reduction compared to the current climate and the highest increase was observed in RCP4.5.