Futures studies on urban worn-out texture Case Study: District 9 Area 1, Tehran Municipality

Neighborhoods that have once lied at the heart of cities and enjoyed cultural richness, now face a problem called "worn-out and inefficient urban texture". New needs emerged and old urban textures faced physical-spatial defects. On the one hand, physical decay, social and economic life in problematic and ineffective textures have exacerbated the deterioration of urban life quality and degraded urban ecosystems in old urban textures of Iran. On the other hand, with rapid scientific and technological advancement in the contemporary world, urban planning system has also undergone transformations and the effects of such changes can be challenging for the city progress. Today urban planning, previously based on traditional system, seems to lack the power and the ability to respond to and solve problems of worn-out urban textures. Therefore, by identifying the opportunities and threats of the future of these textures, ‘futures studies’ approach will help us to better utilize future opportunities and prevent the negative consequences of old urban textures as much as possible. Thus, the most important issue in studies focusing on the future of this part of urban context is the consideration of other factors, including human factors (residents, owners, beneficiaries, and stakeholders) and their contribution to the long-term planning process. The general purpose of futures research is to create awareness about the external environment in order to understand the gaps, trends, and developed technologies. In this way, we can improve the environment as much as possible.   The present study sought to identify the key variables in reducing worn-out urban texture and to examine the relationships between these variables and their influence on each other in the time horizon of 2037. Therefore, using environmental scanning technique (reviewing articles and other published resources, interviewing experts and monitoring conferences) and examining related literature, the initial and existing variables (160 variables) were extracted from the worn-out texture of the 9th district (1st area). The dominant process in this research is applied in terms of purpose, and descriptive-analytical in terms of research method. The nature of data is qualitative. Data were collected from library sources using documentary and survey methods. Since, it is very difficult and even impossible in some cases to manually calculate the cross-impact matrix, complex calculations and data analysis were performed based on the cross-impact analysis method, using Micmac analysis software.
Discussion and Results: Organizing two consultative workshops with experts and managers of worn-out texture, information and variables were integrated, resulting in 61 variables classified into six sub-categories of economic, social, cultural, managerial, legal and legislative, physical, and political. Thus, in order to extract the main factors affecting the reduction of worn-out textures of the area in the horizon of 2037, we entered each variables using Micmac software. Cross-impact analysis matrix (61*61) was created and the degrees of mutual influencing and impressionability were evaluated and ranked by experts and practitioners. In order to arrive at a reliable coefficient of the data validity, the number of iterations was increased up to 5 times to reach one hundred percent desirability and optimization of the matrix. By analyzing data using the software, research results indicate that key strategic and most influential variables for reducing worn-out texture in the 1st area of 9th district are "changes of the government " (the comingup of the new government every four years), "lack of specific laws regarding worn-out texture and their organization", "balancing and realizing social justice", "weakness of attitudes and knowledge in urban managers" and "establishment of organized and continuous local organizations to encourage residents to participate".   Based on the research findings, it can be concluded that only two key and strategic variables (i.e. "changes of the government in every four years" and "good urban governance”) in the 1st area of the 9th district of Tehran played a determinant and influential role. These were considered to be the key players in the system. Therefore, adopting a comprehensive and far-reaching approach to the future of worn-out textures seems to be vital and necessary.