Simulation and prediction of spatio-temporal changes of urban land use by means of CA-Markov model

Development of urban construction and ever-increasing growth of population lead to land use changes especially in agricultural lands which play an important role in providing human food. According to this issue, a proper land use planning is required to protecting and preserving the valuable agricultural lands and environment, in today’s world. One of the ways that can be useful to planning is simulation and prediction of land use change according to effective parameters in changes of the land use over the time. In this study, changes in land use of Bojnourd city (The capital city of North Khorasan province), were considered and studied. In this regard, the CA-Markov model was used. The land use maps of two different periods of time were used to calibrate the models and for validate the model, the “Validate” method (which is a statistical method to validate models). Examination of the output maps which are obtained by CA-Markov model, shows that the most growth in land use is in the built up areas. In 1400, the built up areas would grow 5.3% compared to 1388 and in subsequent periods the growth rate would be 3.5% on average.