Determine the appropriate model to predict the price of Agricultural crops “A case of wheat, Alfa- Alfa and Potato crops”

The agricultural price fluctuations are one of the main problems in front of producers and policy makers especially in developing countries. In this regards price prediction play an important role in control of price instabilirt and risk reduction. The current study attempted to select a proper pattern to predict the major agricultural as well as selected crops in Kurdistan province (wheat, Alfa- Alfa and Potato). Data were collected from retailer price of wheat, Alfa-Alfa and potato crops ducring 2000-2013 for each six months. To acsses stability of data the Dicky Fuller used and it could get stable and predictable at one different deduction level. The patternd used in the srudy are ARIMA, MA and AR. The results showed that, among three used pattern ARIMA respect to evaluation criteria precision follow less error and has more power in prediction in case of selected crops.