The value of negative stress echocardiography in predicting cardiovascular events among adults with no known coronary disease

Stress echocardiography is a safe and cost-effective method of evaluating the patients with suspected coronary artery disease (CAD). However, the risk factors of an adverse cardiovascular event after a normal exercise (ESE) or dobutamine (DSE) stress echocardiography are not well established. A cohort of 705 patients without previous history of CAD and a negative ESE/DSE was studied. All studies were performed in a high-volume echocardiologic laboratory and interpreted by two experienced echocardiography-trained cardiologists. Patients with inconclusive studies and those with an evidence of myocardial ischemia were excluded. Demographic, echocardiographic and hemodynamic findings were recorded. Patients were followed for at least 2 years. Independent predictors of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) were determined by regression analysis. During a period of 55.7±17.5 months, MACE occurred in 35 (5.0%) of patients. Negative predictive value (NPV) of DSE was 89.2%, which was significantly less than 96.5% for ESE in predicting the occurrence of MACE (P = 0.001). MACE occurred more frequently among older (≥65 years) men with preexisting diabetes, hypertension, and/or hyperlipidemia. During ESE, a higher maximum blood pressure*heart rate product for the achieved level of metabolic equivalent (METS) of tasks was also an independent predictor of MACE. Inability of patients to undergo traditional ESE that led to the choice of using DSE alternative reduces the NPV of the stress echocardiography among patients without previous history of CAD. A modest rise of heart rate and blood pressure in response to increased level of activity serves as favorable prognostic value and improves the NPV of stress echocardiography.