Effects of Land Use/Land Cover Change Scenarios on Landscape Metrics on the Talar Watershed

The present study was planned to investigate and predict the landscape metrics on the Talar Watershed, the Province of Mazandaran. Land use/land cover (LULC) maps were produced using the support vector machine (SVM) algorithm for the years 1989, 2000, and 2014. The land change modeler (LCM) was applied for the prediction of LULC maps in different LULC change scenarios for 2030. Multi-layer Perceptron and the Markov chain methods were conducted for transition potential modelling and change prediction, respectively. Landscape metrics including the percentage of landscape (PLAND), the number of patches (NP), the edge density (ED), the patch density (PD), the largest patch index (LPI), the landscape shape index (LPI), the interspersion and juxtaposition index (IJI), and the perimeter-area fractal dimension (PAFRAC) were investigated and extracted using the Fragstats software in the studied years and the LULC change scenarios. Results demonstrated that the changes in the trend of PLAND, NP, ED, PD, LPI, and LSI were decreasing, and increasing in other land use systems during the considered years in forest, rangeland and another LULCs, respectively. Elevation, distance from forest, distance from rangeland areas, and the empirical likelihood of change were identified as the most important factors influencing the LULC change in the studied scenarios. Also, the average increase of NP was calculated at 43.2, 8.9, and 7.9 percent in continuing the current LULC change, deforestation, and residential area development scenarios, respectively. Prioritization of different areas that require restoration with respect to the incorrect LULC changes, and determination and implementation of the precautionary and protective measures in the areas with change prediction based on the studied LULC change scenarios, as well as considering land use planning conditions to improve the health of Talar Watershed by managers and planners are recommended.