Optimal alert cycle in intelligence- security organizations

The main purpose of the political systems from establishing and providing a license to the security institutions is to use these intelligence activities to protect policy makers from the loss of security or security threats. In this regard, the main philosophy of the intelligence cycle is to warn against future anti-security events; on this basis, intelligence defeat is defined as surprise and unpredictable crisis. The purpose of this study is to explain the 'optimal warning cycle' in intelligence – security activities and to answer the main question of “what stages form the optimal warning cycle?”. In order to answer this question, this study uses library study and the Delphi method in three phases and the idea of 7 experts in intelligence and security field to reach a theoretical stability and consensus. As a result, the proposed optimal cycle was formed with five peripheral stages: need assessment, warning, vigilance and prevention and a connecting core in the form of assessment and production of 'knowledge'.