Futures studies of terrorism and the security of international system
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Article Type:
Research/Original Article (دارای رتبه معتبر)
Abstract:

Terrorism is a fixed attribute on the horizon of the future of humanity and technological advancements, thought, tactics and terrorism’s weapons have led governments to make a vision in order to reduce the possible vulnerability factor and adopt an active and proactive position rather than passive and reactive position on how to deal with terrorism. The purpose of this study is to study the terrorism and the security of the international system as a future problem, using the Delphi method. For this purpose, participants in this article are 20 experts in the field of terrorism and futures studies. Furthermore, Judgmental and snowball sampling method was used to select the experts and in the process of the Delphi implementation experts reached consensus on 17 questions. The study results indicate that the continuation and escalation of terrorism in the next decade will be the most likely scenario and the stimulus of technological change, globalization, the world population rise and climate change are effective factors in the creation and spread of terrorism. Threats from cyber and internet terrorism will increase in the next decade and terrorist groups will use unconventional weapons and suicide attacks throughout the world to achieve their goals and terrorist groups in the future pose serious threats to military, economic, human, and environmental security. These results indicate that three strategies; 1. integrated global approach to terrorism, 2. preventative strategy in the form of confronting with terrorism and destroying roots and thinking principles and beliefs of it, 3. the strategy of suppression and technical and operational confronting with manifestations of terrorism could be effective against these threats.

Language:
Persian
Published:
فصلنامه پژوهش های حفاظتی - امنیتی, Volume:7 Issue: 26, 2018
Pages:
119 to 144
magiran.com/p2003162  
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