The Role of Water Geopolitics on Sustainable Development and Security of Border Areas Based on the System Dynamics Approach

In the modern perspective, national security will not be achieved only by increasing military power. In fact it is related to the strengthening of national powers in economical, political, social and military facets, instead of limiting solely in terms of military powers. Energy Geopolitics especially Water Geopolitics would be one of the most important factors affecting national security. According to Geopolitics of the Islamic Republic of Iran, as one of the largest countries in the world, in terms of very long borders, the number of neighboring countries and existence of rivers and seas, covering more than 50% of border strip has created great potential for comprehensive and sustainable development, which can improve economic, social, cultural and security indicators in the region. This study is attempted to divide the border regions based on Geopolitical and Hydro-political characteristics, and to focus on development capacities in the western border of Iran, especially in relation to the issue of the control and exploitation of water in Trans- boundary Rivers. To do this, by using existing documents, library resources, reports of the Ministry of Energy, the analysis of international practices and personal experiences, and application of System Dynamics integrated approach, stakeholders' behaviors in western border regions will be analyzed. The "sustainable development of water-based border" approach is considered as the most important factor in enhancing human and social indicators and consequently the establishment of security in the western borders of the country. Due to the abundance of water resources in the western regions of the country, the planning and development of these areas can be focused on water. In this regard, the stakeholders' behaviors for using these resources can be analyzed with the System Dynamics integrated approach. By considering all of the interactions in the western basin of Iran and considering the activity of casual loop diagrams, three types of "Shifting of the Burden archetype", "Success in the successful archetype" and "Limits to Growth archetype" were derived from this study, which can be discussed under the following themes: Based on the conceptual loop of sustainable development and the security aspects of the border regions, which one discussed in this paper, this action measures create a mechanism similar to the "Shifting the Burden archetype" which simply may have a delaying impact on the need in addressing the existing challenges. Military actions or border barriers may provide security in the short-term, but sustainable development, as a fundamental solution, guarantees security in the long-term horizon. Considering that Iran, during the eight years of the Imposed War, and also for many years up to the present, due to the existence minefields and the destruction of agricultural and residential infrastructures and migration in the border regions, have made it very difficult to use Iran’s territorial waters even in limited scales, whereas practically faced with more use of the opposite side of the border areas, which may create false water rights during these years. This behavior will be similar to the "Success to the successful archetype" and as stated, external driver and factors changing it seems necessary. The using of Trans-boundary waters and the subsequent development of the border follows the "Limits to Growth archetype". As we mentioned in this study, the growth process cannot continue forever without restriction. So it is necessary to pay attention to the water rights of the downstream riparian. Otherwise, may be encountered possible protests or tensions similar to protests against the Turkey's Gap Project. In this paper, while attempting to highlight the threats, opportunities, strengths and weaknesses of the western borders of the country, the "sustainable development of water-based border" approach is considered as the most important factor in providing security to the western border areas of the country. To do this, by using existing documents and reports in this regard, and application of System Dynamics integrated approach, existing complexities in the stakeholders' behaviors in western border regions were analyzed and three types of archetypes were extracted. These archetypes can be useful in water sector planning especially in sustainable development approach. Using these archetypes one can analyze the thought process and stockholder’s behavior in the border region systematically with regard to security issues.