Investigating the Effect of Economic Variables on Export of Iranian Traditional and Agricultural Goods

In this research, had Analysis the effect of five macroeconomic variables including exchange rate, gross domestic product, prices of agriculture, agricultural investment and money supply on agricultural goods exports. In the present study, using Vector Auto-Regressive (VAR) and the Johansen method and during period 65-1393. The results show that agricultural goods exports variable has a positive and significant effect with exchange rate variable, relative prices variable, money supply variable. And it has a negative and significant effect on agriculture investment. There is also a one-way causal relationship between the exchange rate and agricultural exports and the supply of money and agricultural exports, too. In addition, ECM show if agricultural exports are an imbalance, it will balance with decline a quarter in a year. To determine the relationship between variables in the long run used Johansson method. The vectors are convergent. The results of this study suggest that economic authorities try to reform the exchange rate and eliminate the official rate and free rate deviation arbitrarily. That is the best way to establish the stability of the currency and, consequently, long-term export stability. To do this, you have to lead the production of cash and money to produce and boost market capitalization.