Application of the IHACRES Model to Assess the Effects of Climate Change onthe Discharge of Tajan Watershed
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Article Type:
Research/Original Article (دارای رتبه معتبر)
Abstract:

Climate change and global warming are one of the most important issues in the world in the current era and are spreading all over the globe and its harmful effects on water resources are not overlooked; Therefore, forecasting the climate change of an area will play an important role in the planning and management of water resources. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the effects of this phenomenon on the discharge of Tajan watershed in the upcoming period. For this purpose, in the first step, the simulation of temperature and precipitation parameters was performed using the CANESM2 atmospheric model under the new RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 release scenarios and microscopic atmospheric model outputs with SDSM model. Then simulation of daily discharge of the basin was carried out in the future period with the IHACRES rainfall–runoff model. Non-parametric Mann-Whitney test was used to check the performance and error of SDSM downscaling model, which illustrates the model's performance in the downscaling of temperature and precipitation at the studied stations. In general, the results of the model showed that the average annual temperature of the basin in the upcoming period (2020-2049) compared to the base period of this research (1976-2005) will increase under two scenarios RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5, 1.14 and 1.57 and amount of precipitation will decrease under the same two scenarios, 59.72 and 70.98 mm, respectively. In the final step, the results of IHACRES calibration and validation were examined. In the final step, the results of the IHACRES calibration and validation were checked. During these two stages, the Nash-Sutcliff efficiency coefficient (0.45 and 0.40) was obtained, which indicates the acceptable accuracy of the model in the simulation of the discharge. According to the results of this research, it was predicted that discharge under two scenarios RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5 will decrease 19.8 and 21.7% respectively in the upcoming period compared to the base period.

Language:
Persian
Published:
Iranian Journal of Irrigation & Drainage, Volume:13 Issue: 1, 2019
Pages:
129 to 141
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