Simulation of Iran's Energy Balance and Designing Supply and Demand Management Scenarios for 2042 Using LEAP

Importance of long-term planning in the energy sector and employing policy design tools are focal and strategic issues of the country. The main objective of this paper is to measure the supply (Energy Transformation) and demand of energy during the period of 2014-2042 according to the reference scenario and policy scenarios, and to calculate the amount of oil and gas savings under the new scenarios of supply and demand management of the reference scenario. The results of modeling below various energy sectors indicate that energy demand will increase from 1321 MBOE in 2014 to 2471.3 MBOE in 2042. By defining new scenarios and adopting demand and supply management policies, the amount of crude oil savings in the projected year is 702.6 MBOE, which is higher than the base year's crude exports. This result attributed to crude oil exports will be added in the planning horizon. This paper concludes that the move towards utilizing energy demand management and energy supply (Energy Transformation) policies, as well as replacing the renewable energy sources of wind and solar instead of fossil fuels.