The Effect of Climatic Change on the Current and Future Niche of Zoonotic Cutaneous Leishmaniasis Vector and Reservoir Species in Yazd Province

Leishmania tropica and Leishmania major are the causative agents of Anthroponotic Cutaneous Leishmaniasis (ACL) and Zoonotic Cutaneous Leishmaniasis (ZCL) in various areas of Iran, respectively. Yazd province is one of the endemic centers of ZCL. Therefore, this study aimed to investigate and predict the effects of the climate change on the potential scattering of the vector and reservoir species of ZCL disease in Yazd province, as one of the endemic centers of ZCL in Iran in the present (1950-2000) and prospective time (2030).

According to the findings of prior studies conducted in Yazd province, the data related to the vectors and reservoir of the ZCL were collected and recorded in the databank. ArcGIS 10.3 and MaxEnt software were used to estimate the suitable ecological niches using 19 variables. In this study, Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model and scenario of  Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 were applied with respect to 2030 horizon.

According to results of Jackknife test, the climate variables of Bio8 & Bio6 for the current period, and climate variables of Bio8 & Bio7 for the future (2030) produced the most effects on the distribution of vector and reservoir species in Yazd province. These results indicated that temperature had the greatest impact on the vector’s distribution in the present and future. Currently, eastern and central areas of the province are more likely to receive most of the vector and reservoir species. It is anticipated that in the future, we will observe an increase in the presence of vector in the western districts and reservoirs in the northern and central regions of the province. 

Climate conditions provide suitable habitats for easy transfer of ZCL disease in Yazd province. This research confirmed that suitable climatic conditions for the vector and reservoir will be expanded in coming years in comparison with the current period.