Use of Econometric Techniques to Estimate the Traumatic Trend of Road Accidents

Road traffic accidents in Iran are a very important issue that limits economic development and is one of the main threats to the health and safety of people in the community. The statistics show that after cardiovascular disease, traffic accidents are the second leading cause of death in different age groups, which has made prediction in this area important.

In this study, using the statistics of traffic injuries between April 2009 and March 2012 in Golestan, Mazandaran, Gilan and Ardebil provinces, they were referred to forensic medicine using the Jenkins Boxing Methodology, one of the most advanced methods Forecasting and future studies in the field of health systems, predicted the number of injuries by province, for the years 1395 to 1398.

The results of the study showed that the appropriate time series pattern for predicting Golestan injuries, ARIMA (4,2,4), Mazandaran ARIMA (3,1,5), Gilan ARIMA (3,1,4) and Ardibil ARIMA (5, 1,2). Also, the average percentage of absolute error for Golestan province was 0.114, Mazandaran province was 0.064, Guilan province was 0.078 and Ardabil province was 0.1250. Which demonstrates the precision of the Jenkins Boxing Methodology in predicting the number of traffic jams, especially in Mazandaran and Guilan? Estimated values for 1995 to 1398 showed that the number of road traffic injuries in Golestan province is increasing and is decreasing in Mazandaran, Gilan and Ardebil provinces.

The high accuracy of the Jenkins methodology methodology shows that a suitable method is available to experts and managers for predicting traffic injuries in Golestan, Gilan, Mazandaran and Ardebil provinces. The decrease in injuries in Mazandaran, Gilan and Ardebil in the future indicates a progressive improvement in the behavior of the transportation system in these provinces, as well as the Golestan province is moving towards an increase in traffic accidents, requiring re-planning to reduce accidents in This is the province