Routing aging of the Iranian population in the selected age group using time series for Horizon 2056

The demographic changes of a country serve as the basis for large-scale policymaking and decision-making. Hence, population is the basis of investment in the development of roads and housing, economic enterprises, educational and health facilities, amenities and energy supply, and so on. Thus, a misunderstanding of demographic changes will lead to disparities in planning and ultimately loss of time and capital. The elderly population is a population that is more than ten percent of the total population aged 65 years. Also, the definition of an elderly person in different countries varies according to life expectancy between 50 and 75 years. In this study, age 70 is considered as the age of aging. Accordingly, the purpose of this study is to route the aging population of the selected age group over the next 37 years (at 2056 horizon). In this regard, the Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model is used to apply relationships and predictions. The data used are the censuses of 1986 to 2016. The results show that the population change is expected to increase by 70 years and above, which will reach 743.16% in 2056. Also, according to the results predicted by the ARIMA model, it is expected that by the 2056, population aged 70 years and over is "26644317" with is equal to 22% of the total population in that year.