Projection of Climate Change Effects on degree days of Cooling and Heating Requirements in Selected Stations in Ilam Province

The phenomenon of climate change is the most important challenge and threat to humanity in the future. The climate change is the most important challenge and threat to humanity in the future. Urban areas and human settlements are most vulnerable parts to the climate change. Any change in climate patterns will change the amount of energy. Due to global warming, we will see an increase in the average temperature of the Iran in the coming decades compared to the present. As a result, the country will face a crisis of increasing energy consumption in the coming decades to cold environment, not only in the warm season.

In this research, two types of data forms the basis of research: historical observational data and simulated data on the output of general circulation models. Historical observational or baseline data course covering the period from 1980 to 2005. In the future data section, the output of simulator models in the upcoming period of the CMIP5 model series was used. Until then, the results of the global circulation models do not have the capability for the local dimension, so, in order to compensate for this problem, it is necessary to use the methods of quantum microscopy. In order to achieve the climatic simulation data in the upcoming period, MarkSIMGCM database was used for exponential imaging of the AOGCM models. This database, as a web-based tool, uses a randomized third-order Markov model to downscal the minimum and maximum temperature data, and rainfall and sunshine daily fluctuate. In order to simulate the data for the upcoming period, the output of the proposed AOGCM Models (BCC-CSM1.1, HadGEM2-ES and GFDL-CM3) from the CMIP5 model (Comparison of Coupled Models Compared) with beter spatial resolution was used. The RMSE, MBE, MAE and R2 indicators used for comparison.

The results showed that the HadGEM2-ES model of the CMIP5 general circulation model series has a higher performance and higher compliance with observation data. Assessments showed that under the conditions of climate change in the upcoming period, the amount of heat accumulation will increase. In the middle and far futures, the amount of cooling requirement will increase to adjust the ambient temperature due to increased air temperature. The magnitude of the incremental changes in the number of days of the cold need and the decrease in the value of the heating days is one of the major consequences of climate change in the energy field. At Dehloran Station, the cooling time period will be deployed between April and December. Under the conditions of the change of the climate of the current period, the number of days with cooling requirements will go up, and on the other hand, the time interval required for cooling will be wider. Most cooling needs will occur between June and August. Therefore, the amount of cooling requirement due to the increase in air temperature in tropical areas such as Dehloran is much higher than in high and mountainous areas such as the city of Ilam.

The results showed that in the middle and far futures, the amount of cooling requirement will be increased to adjust the ambient temperature due to increased air temperature. At Dehloran Station, the cooling time will be switched between April and December. Under the conditions of the climate change of the current period, the number of days with cooling needs will go ahead and, on the other hand, the cooling-up time required will be wider. In both patterns of radiation induction, any change in the air temperature pattern will increase the cooling demand of different regions and urban settlements. Therefore, based on the results of this study, it is necessary for planners to take necessary measures to reduce the harmful effects in order to optimize energy consumption and increase the swing in different regions, especially tropical regions. Urban areas and human settlements are most vulnerable parts to the climate change. Any change in climate patterns will change the amount of energy. Due to global warming, we will see an increase in the average temperature of the Iran in the coming decades compared to the present. As a result, the country will face a crisis of increasing energy consumption in the coming decades to cold environment, not only in the warm season.

Keywords:Climate change, CMIP5, Heating and Cooling degree days, Ilam.