Future Studies of Iran Handmade Carpet Industry Using Critical Uncertainty Approach

As the handmade carpet industry has attracted many people, it can be an important factor in creating permanent and seasonal employment for the community. The challenges of the handmade carpet industry, such as poor quality of raw materials, worn-out technology, weak design and marketing, exit of labor from industry, training and competitive market space require attention to the future. This study aimed to identify the plausible scenarios of handmade carpet industry.

In this study, using Global Business Network and Dematel technique, we first identify key factors affecting the Iranian handmade carpet industry, and then develop future scenarios for this industry. Initial data were collected through interviews with managers and experts in handmade carpet industry (21 persons) and literature review. These data were analyzed using expert questionnaire and Dematel technique.

According to the results of the GBN, the final key factors are: boom or recession in consumer countries, monetary and exchange rate policies, government support facilities, foreign sanctions, marketing, use of advanced technology in raw materials production, The boom or recession in Iran, export support method and the organizing approach of supply chain stages. According to the results of the Dematel technique, the key factor of foreign sanctions has been the most influential among the key factors. Also, the way of organizing the supply chain stages  has affected more than all.

Based on these two key factors, four scenarios of Rhino, Sham Market, Rabbit Sleep and Persian Cheetah are presented for the Iranian handmade carpet industry. The present study will be used by private sector actors, government actors, investors and policy makers and local decision makers.