Estimation and Prediction of Mortality Rate Induced by Ischemic Heart Disease with Incomplete Data in Isfahan Using Age-periodcohort Analysis during 2004-2018

Despite the recent decrease in heart disease mortality in developed countries, ischemic heart disease (IHD)-induced mortality is still ranked first in Iran. However, there is no conceptualization of changes occurred in the disease process and the role demographic variables may play in this regard. Age-period-birth cohort (APC) analysis can deepen the understanding of mortality process, and help its prediction in the near future.

The present study was a panel of cross-sectional cohort estimating IHD-induced mortality rate during 2004-2013 with the use of the "APC model. Moreover, this study aimed to this mortality rate for 2014-2018 using the mortality-incidence analysis model-MIAMOD software. The study sample consisted of individuals selected from the database collected at Monitoring and Registration Unit of the Cardiovascular Diseases in Isfahan Cardiovascular Research Institute, Isfahan, Iran.

The age-adjusted death was higher in men than in women. The age-adjusted mortality rate of IHD during 2004-2013, on average, increased by 13.6% and 14.7% for men and women, respectively. Furthermore, it is predicted that the mortality rate would increase by 14.1% and 10% for men and women during 2014-2018in each year, respectively. The obtained results indicated that the increase of age led to the increase of mortality rate, meaning that mortality was higher in the subjects born during 1932-1936, compared to those born in 1972-1976.

The obtained results were indicative of the increasing trend of mortality in Isfahan among both men and women. Moreover, the estimation and prediction based on the (APC) Model can be used as a basis for the management of health services.