Prediction of future land use changes in Tehran Metropolitan Region (TMR) with the combination of logistic regression, Markov chain, and cellular automata

The metropolitan regions, especially in developing countries, have experienced rapid population growth due to the absorption of economic immigrants, which have had destructive effects on change in land use environment in the past decades. The current planning process of land use makes it necessary to identify the future pattern of land use on the basis of appropriate criteria with the natural, economic and social environment. Changes in land use occur in a dynamic and complex process due to the mutual effect of natural, social and economic factors and the impact of each factor in different time and scales. Simulation as an efficient way to understand these changes and assess the potential impact of land use changes on the ecology system and future patterns of change is proposed. Accordingly, this study aims to predict future land use changes in the Tehran metropolitan region. In the first step of land use changes in the region. By identifying the effect of changing factors and potential of land use, land use changes are drawn based on past years for future years. So, for this purpose, first, of 1985, 2000 and 2015, using ENVI software and SVM method are classified and analyzed. In the second step, the effect of factors effect is determined after recognition of the factors driving change with the logistic regression method. The prediction of future changes is simulated by a combination of Markov and cellular automata methods for future changes in 2030 and 2045. the results of the study show that the trend of last changes in Tehran metropolitan region has led to the destruction of pastures, agricultural land, and arid land and this trend will increase the damage to the built-up areas of natural and environmental resources, which have the greatest impact on the change in roads, distance from built areas and natural factors. Changes in the 2030s and 2045s will be the trend in the past, and the developed regions will increase, and in the western, southern and eastern axes, the most changes will occur.