Cross-Sectional and Age Analysis of the Impact of the Early-Mortality Pattern on the Lost Income of the Social Security Funds

Pension funds' encounter with disproportion between revenues and liabilities and concerns regarding their bankruptcy in the time of "window of opportunity" or "demographic dividend" is a thought-provoking paradox. The balance between revenues and liabilities is attributable to different variables and ascribing all matters to population changes is unreasonable. Premiums received by social security are the main source of its revenue affected by the economic, actuary, demographic and social mechanisms. The aim of this article is estimation and analysis of financial burdens brought about by early mortality of the insured. This estimation and analysis are carried out using multiple life tables and based on administrative data extracted from the Ministry of Health and Medical Education (MOHME), social security, the censuses in 2011 and 2016. Findings indicate overall four main causes of death (cardiovascular diseases, cancers, metabolic disorders, and unintentional accidents) eliminate 275,000 years of Iranian's life during their economically active ages. Approximately two-thirds of the figure is merely attributable to early mortality caused by cardiovascular diseases and unintentional accidents (each one almost one third). The years of the lost life of the insured aged 15-64 in 2015 has imposed damage about 3306 billion Iranian Rials to social security funds.