A Possible Scenario of Kurdish Ethnic Divergence In Weakening the Social Security of Kurdistan Province
Scenario writing is a type of futurology research method in which scenarios narratively describe possible events that are likely to occur in the future. A scenario is a combinations of imaginative and realistic forecasts of probable future events. In each scenario project, a portfolio of scenarios is usually designed, and then the mean of scenarios is taken as the most likely future event. Developing a scenario is a different type of research method. Scenarios are possible only by employing other futurological research methods. In other words, scenarios are a way to sum up the results of other futurological researches. In many cases, the main purpose of the futurological projects is to design several scenarios for the realization of a desirable future. Hence, the present study aimed at investigating a possible scenario of Kurdish ethnic divergence in the weakening social security in Kurdistan province. A statistical population of 10 experts and university professors were selected by purposeful sampling to participate in semi-structured interviews. Finally the collected data was coded. Applying statistical frequency method, the researchers proposed three probable scenarios of ethnic divergence including "intellectual divergence through media warfare" with a frequency of 6, the “supporting Kurdish opposition groups for breaking out chaos” with frequency of 3, and “internal collapse” with frequency of 2, which were the most probable scenarios according to the expert.
فصلنامه مدیریت بحران و وضعیت های اضطراری, Volume:9 Issue:34, 2019
85 - 113
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