Resilience Index of Monetary and Financial Sector of Iran

The purpose of this paper is to define and calculate Iran's monetary and financial sector resilience index. So, according to the existing resilience literature, and using the grounded theory (GT) approach, theoretical saturation was obtained with respect to the resilience components of the monetary and financial sector and Indicator factors were extracted using the bayesian model averaging approach. Five variables were identified in the presence of 22 variables, in the framework of the model's uncertainty and with an estimated three million and six hundred thousand regressions; which include the growth rate of government oil revenues, the fluctuation of the growth rate of liquidity, Risk index, the ratio of bank debt to the central bank to the monetary base and the ratio of government debt to the banking system to liquidity, as non-fragile variables,(this means that it retains its work as an effective factor in the resilience of the monetary and financial sector in the presence of other variables and have meaning). Which shows that because of the probability of a higher uptake, these variables should be considered more than other variables in assessing the effect of monetary and financial sector. The time series of the index of monetary and financial sector resilience is calculated based on the normalized variables of these variables for the period from 1976 to 2016.