Estimates of severe accidents in the pattern of urban transport planning (Case study: Mashhad)

The field and purpose:

The identification of the impact of various means of travel in the event of severe accidents can lead to improved trends of long-term urban transport planning. the present research is reviewed to study the relationship between different vehicles in the event of severe urban  accidents. The purpose of this research is to estimate severe accidents at the level of urban traffic areas in order to use it in trend of transport planning that have been neglected in previous studies. For this purpose, for the first time, from the share of different vehicles travel has been used as independent research variables.

severe accidents data as well as separate travel data related to 2008 in Mashhad city is used for performing research. Also, in this study, two generalized linear modeling methods with logarithmic transformation and negative binomial distribution, and weighted geographic  regression were used.

According to the results obtained from the generalized linear model with logarithmic transformation and negative binomial distribution, respectively, bus services, school services, motorcycles and personal vehicles have the greatest impact on the event of urban severe accidents in Mashhad. Also according to results obtained from weighted geographic regression model, respectively, bus services, pedestrians and personal cars have the greatest impact on the event of sever accident in Mashhad city.furthermore, according to both methods used, The presence of more taxis in traffic areas has reduced the number of sever accidents in those areas. Therefore, due to the relationship between the sever accidents rates and the share of different vehicles travel, using the method presented in this research and applying management policies can reduce the severe accidents.