A Review of the Problem of the Independence of the Kurdistan Region of Iraq and its Impact on the National Security of the Islamic Republic of Iran

Since 1991, the debate on the independence of the Kurdistan region of Iraq has been one of the main crises in this country. In order to achieve this goal, Massoud Barzani, the head of Iraqi Kurdistan Region, held a referendum On 25 September 2017 to determine the independence of the central government in Iraq and pushed this country to the brink of danger of separatism and civil war. In this paper, the authors' efforts are about providing a scientific answer to these questions: What are the impacts of the referendum on the security of the Islamic Republic of Iran? and what are the possible scenarios for the future of Iraqi Kurdistan? The findings of the paper, which are based on the theory of the cyclic version of the Mial Haug crisis, implies that the historical background of this crisis are related to the era of Saddam's Ba'ath and defeat of the Iraqi government by the US-led coalition in 1991. The development of the crisis is the result of many factors including the US invasion of Iraq, the lack of a powerful government in this country, conflicts between Iraqi Arab groups, the emergence of ISIL and the opportunism of the Kurds in post-Saddam developments. In the phase of repression and civil war, one can consider the military challenges and the problems of central government in Kirkuk and economic and geopolitical issues. In the phase of mediation and intermediacy, One can consider the impact of the political and economic sanctions of countries in the region such as Iran, Turkey and Iraq, international oppositions, death of Jalal Talabani and the internal challenges among the Kurds in the Kurdistan region. The methodology of this paper is based on futures studies and the use the written/virtual sources.