Forecasted Earnings Attributes by Management and Future Stock Price Crash Risk

Accumulation of negative information and bad news concealment inside the firm lead to bulk negative news about the firm. The sudden disclosure of this negative news is to increase the risk of the stock price crash. In this regard, it is logical to expect that the announcement of forecasted earnings that affect the information accessed by investors will produce an effect on stock price crash risk. This study aims to explore the effects of managements’ forecasted earnings attributes on the future stock price crash risk. To achieve this, we have screened 101 firms from among accepted firms in Tehran Stock Exchange during 2003-2017. And, multiple regression is used to test our hypotheses. Our findings suggest that the forecasting error attribute exerts a positive and significant effect on the stock price crash risk in the Tehran Stock Exchange; whereas, the effect produced by the frequency of the forecast is not statistically significant. Moreover, controlling for the effect of forecast error attribute, manager optimism leads to an increase in stock price crash risk when forecasting with a single criterion. However, we observed that a second criterion mutes the manager optimism effect.