Carbon Monoxide Emission Modeling in Tabriz City Based on System Dynamics Approach

In this research, using system dynamics approach, carbon monoxide pollutant emission is simulated for the time period of 2012-2021. The aim of the present research study is carbon monoxide pollutant emission modeling and evaluation of various sceneries in line with air pollution decrease in Tabriz city. According to the  research literature “energy consumption (fossil fuels )”, “urban and urbanization development”, “traffic load”, “urban population”, “industrial development”, “immigration” and “green spaces” were considered as the key influential  variables in Carbon Monoxide production. The interaction among the variables (i.e. dynamic theory) was shown using causal-loop diagrams and stock-flow plots. Then, with the aid of valid theories in the field of problem literature and elites’ view in the field, causal relations were defined in the form of mathematical functions and finally they were simulated. According to the results of the simulation, about 97% of the air carbon monoxide is related to gasoline consumption. Moreover, results of the sceneries’ evaluation indicated that replacement of EURO 4 gasoline and decreasing ordinary rate of monthly travels, decrease carbon monoxide release in the city, considerably.