The Effects of Climate Change on Runoff Using IHACRES Hydrologic Model in Some of Watersheds, Ardabil Province

Climate change is one of the most important challenges that have significant effects on human life. In the recent decades, the climate situation resulted in changes in the volume, duration and time of runoff, which might have many considerable effects on the management of water resources. In this study, the main purpose is to obtain fluctuation of runoff over the coming decades (2030-2011) using the IHACRES model. For this purpose, the maximum temperature, minimum temperature and precipitation parameters over the coming decades (2030-2011) were investigated using the LARS-WG program and the HadCM3 model. The obtained data of HadCM3 have entered the IHACRES model at 8 hydrometric stations, located in Ardabil province south and southwest. So, the runoff rate was achieved in the coming decades (2030-2011). The result shows that the precipitation rate has fluctuated in the coming decades, and for the period of 2011-2030, precipitation has decreased till 3.68% and the maximum temperature and minimum temperature increased, 16.48 and 5.39 percent, respectively. Also, the results of the runoff amount during the next decades at the hydrometric stations showed that the average discharge has decreased total 0.16 percent, and on the other hand, peak discharge has increased. The highest increase in the floods evens was observed in the Yamchi hydrometric station with 2.09 m3.s-1average and 16 days with discharge higher than 6 cubic meters per second.