The Effect of Political cycles in condition of Rational speculative bubbles and Based on the Theory of Constraints on the Real Rate of Return for selected firms in Tehran Stock Market

The main purpose of this research is to test the effect of the rational speculative bubbles and the political cycle based on the theory of constraint on the total rate of return in selected companies of the chemical and petroleum industry (51 companies) In the Tehran Stock Exchange during the period of 2009-2016 by econometric model of panel data. Therefore, the determination and estimation of the model of the research was performed based on the diagnostic tests of the fixed effects method. The results of the estimation of each of the model represent the confirmation of the positive and significant relationship between the independent variables and political cycles (in two periods of fundamentalism and moderation), as well as three variables in the model such as; capital cost, earnings, and operating cash flow, which are based on the theory of constraints. Of course, all the research control variables were obtained on the dependent variable of the companies under review. So, based on the estimation and testing the research model of the research, the hypothesis has been approved, it is also states that political cycles as a limiting factor in the price bubbles have a significant impact on the real rate of return in the chemical and petrochemical industry group companies. Finally, the suggestions based on the results of the research are presented to adjust the impact of the political cycles on the total real stock return rate.