Structural analysis of Livability of Urban Deteriorated Textures with a Futuristic Approach(Case study: Deteriorated Texture of region 1 of Qazvin City)

 Awareness of the effects of increasing the livability of urban Deteriorated textures needs to provide a structural analysis of it in the future in order to increase the quality of such spaces, with the application of the livability approach, can be measured and evaluated and finally, help to create dynamic urban centers and sustainable districts. In this regard, this research has been carried out with the final aim of structural analysis of the livability of urban deteriorated textures of Qazvin city with a futuristic approach. This study is considered descriptive-analytical paper in terms of methodology and in term of target is a practical one. Data and research information are gathered using documentary and field studies. The statistical population of the study was 61 experts who were selected by purposeful sampling. The number of 14 variables were identified and analyzed by MIC MAC software to determine the future of livability of urban deteriorated textures. The results indicate that the degree of filling is 80.79%, which demonstrates the high impact of factors on each other. In addition, of the total of 155 measurable relations in this matrix, 41 relations are number zero (lack of impact), 27 relations are number one (low impact), 36 relations are number two (strong impact) and, 92 relations are number three (significantly high impact). So, Findings of the study of the key variables affecting the status of urban deteriorated textures in the study area expresses the instability of these areas in relation to future livability.

 The urbanization of the world's population and the globalization of the cities and their role in the national and global development are the main concepts in the transition from the agricultural age civilization to the industrial and business one. The consequences and effects of the rapid growth of urbanization would lead to the concentration of more than 60 percent of the world's population in cities, with 3.1 billion populations by 2030. So, in the present era, the urban, the urbanism and the citizenship have become the most important issues, influential on the qualitative and quantitative aspects of the human life. People expect higher standards of the urban environment in which they live. The urban deteriorated fabrics are among the most important aspects of the cities, which could be the cause and effect of many urban problems. Despite the turn in the urban developmental pattern’s policies in the recent decade from the horizontal development to the investment in the urban fabrics, the biological system of these fabrics has impairment and inefficiency in terms of both the structure and the function of the critical components. Therefore, identifying and understanding the needs of the citizens (the subjective demand) and the livability of these residences (the objective suitable conditions) enhance the quality of life (the subjective satisfaction) in the urban areas and provide a basis for the sustainable development. Since the task of the future city is paying attention to the most important concerns of a human being in the form of his activities, creating a livable city is a great and complex commitment; and the urban residents need the support of the urban planners in terms of the livability indicators.

This research was applied according to the subject and the purpose and it was explanatory based on the new methods of the futures study. A library-survey method was used for collecting the data in order to obtain the necessary theoretical insight and to study the research literature. Delphi questionnaires were prepared numerically and through weighting. The interaction matrix was formed in two stages after collecting the indicators and variables, so that the indicators have been placed in its rows and columns. Regarding the factors influential on the livability of the urban deterioratedfabrics, the viewpoints of the sixteen professors and experts in urban livability from academic and research centers were taken using Delphi technique. The weight of this questionnaire was measured by pairwise comparisons. Also, the amount of the relation among the variables was assessed with numbers ranging from zero to three. The Delphi technique requires obtaining the data from the elites and specialists and analyzing them. The purposive sampling was used to select the Delphi team, since the research aim was not to generalize the results. The criteria for selecting the elites included the theoretical proficiency, the practical experience, the willingness and the ability to participate in the research and their accessibility. The important point in determining the number of elites was to ensure the comprehensiveness of the different viewpoints in the research. The scoring was done through the Interaction Technique (Structural Analysis Method) using the MIC MAC software.

 The purpose of this study was to identify the most important factors influential on the future status of the urban deteriorated fabrics' livability in zones one, two and three of Qazvin city’s district one and studying to what extent and how these factors could have such influence using futures studies approach. In this study, Delphi technique was used to identify the primary variables influential on the future of the livability of the studied deteriorated fabrics, due to their dispersal and overlap with the urban livability. Also, the structural interaction analysis was used to examine to what extent and how the factors influenced it and finally to identify the key factors in the livability of the urban deteriorated fabrics. After library studies, to identify the influential factors on the livability of the urban deteriorated fabrics, 14 factors were identified and a 14 * 14 matrix was arranged in six different domains. In general, the results of the interaction analysis showed that the overall pattern of the dispersion of the key factors in the livability of the urban deteriorated fabrics indicates the status of an unsustainable environmental system. In such system, the key factors have complex and interstitial condition in terms of the influence and affectedness. Among the 14 identified variables for the livability of the deteriorated fabrics, 6 ones were identified as the key factors in the livability of Qazvin city’s deteriorated fabrics including the attractive public territories, the security and safety, the recreation and leisure, the accessibility, the environmental health and the public transport.

The purpose of this study was to identify the most important factors influential on the future status of the urban deteriorated fabrics' livability in zones one, two and three of Qazvin city’s district one and studying to what extent and how these factors could have such influence using futures studies approach. In this study, Delphi technique was used to identify the primary variables influential on the future of the livability of the studied deteriorated fabrics, due to their dispersal and overlap with the urban livability. Also, the structural interaction analysis was used to examine to what extent and how the factors influenced it and finally to identify the key factors in the livability of the urban deteriorated fabrics. After library studies, to identify the influential factors on the livability of the urban deteriorated fabrics, 14 factors were identified and a 14 * 14 matrix was arranged in six different domains. The dispersion of the key variables influential on the livability of the urban deteriorated fabrics of the zones one, two and three of Qazvin city district one indicated the unsustainability of the system. Much of the livability factors of the deteriorated fabrics was scattered around the diametric pivot axis of the plate. Except a few cases that showed their high influence on the system, the other variables had almost the same status relative to each other. Other findings also indicated that among the 14 studied factors in this research, six factors were selected as the key ones influencing the livability of the urban deteriorated fabrics. The variables such as the attractive public territories, the security and safety and the recreation and leisure in the risk area (Northeast zone), and the factors including accessibility, the environmental health and the public transportation in the zone one had the highest influence and the lowest affectedness. They were the most influential and crucial factors from the experts' viewpoints. The variables such as housing, the trust-participation and the satisfaction, the social interactions and relationships, the identity and sense of belonging to a place, the historical-natural landscape and the respect are among the variables with the low influence and high affectedness. In fact, these variables played a strategic role in the livability of the deteriorated fabrics of the studied area, but their status in the future depends on the constructive effects of the other variables.