Scenario Planning for the Future of the Iranian Standardization System in the Field of Production Technology

One of the methods of futurology is scenario writing. In this study, the main factors of the future formation of the standardization system have been identified and analyzed, and the scenarios for the standardization system have been extracted. To this end, based on library studies, a list of the most important factors and variables effective in determining the status of the system was first identified and then, based on expert opinions, the factors that were below the mean scores were eliminated. This way, the selected factors for the next stage of the research on and the designing of the cross-impact questionnaire were extracted. Then, using the questionnaire and applying the cross-impact analysis method using MicMac software, the opinions of the experts were analyzed and 9 factors were identified out of the 24 previously extracted factors as the final key (risk) factors. The results of this section were presented to experts in the form of another questionnaire to determine the uncertainties and significance of each variable. Finally, based on the results and calculations performed on the results of the uncertainty questionnaire, the future scenarios of the standardization system in the field of production technology were identified. According to the results, the two uncertainties of “production policies in order to develop a competitive ground in industries”, and “the possibility of producing modern equipment and machinery” were found to have the highest coefficients and therefore constitute the axes of the scenario of this study.