Prediction of Climate Change Effects on Vegetable Production and Functioning in Hormozgan Province (Case study: onion and tomatoe)

The agriculture section as a subsection of our economy receives the most impact under the climate fluctuations. Climate change is an unsustainable factor affecting the yield of agricultural crops. Therefore, recognition of climate parameters and their effect on crops is one of the most important factors in increasing yield. Vegetable production globally, as a wage-earning profession, is very effective in improving the general public's economy. The inadequate use of potential climatic facilities causes the destruction of natural resources and the wasting of the national capital. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the yield and production of onion and tomato products due to climate change and its prediction for 2025-2100 in Hormozgan province.

In order to more accurately estimate the function of the reaction of the yield of horticultural products to the climatic components, the climatic indices of Hormozgan province were divided into two climatic regions. Region (1) includes Minab, Hajiabad, Rudan and region (2) includes Bandarlenghe, Band-Abbas, Qeshm and Jask. The yield function of two products, onion and tomato, in the two regions under study was estimated using panel data and Eviews software. Then, using the weather forecasting scenarios, the yield and production of vegetables (onion and tomato) for the years 2025 to 2100 were predicted. Agricultural and climatic data were collected during the years 2003- 2017.

Results showed that the temperature has an opposite effect and rainfall and humidity has a direct effect on the yield of onion and tomato. The most important factor affecting onion production in both regions is the temperature. On the tomato production, the humidity factor in the region (1) and the factor of temperature and humidity in the region (2) are almost the same in terms of effect level. The difference is that the temperature has a negative effect and the humidity has a positive effect on the performance. The negative effect of temperature on the onion yield was higher than that of tomato. The negative effect of temperature on onion production in the region (2) has a higher intensity than the region (1). Performance prediction up to 2100 showed that yield of onion reduce more than yield of tomato. the yield reduction in the region (2) is higher than the region (1). In contrast, the tomato production in the region (1) is higher than the region (2). According to the decline in the yield of two products, the production cuts for both products has been predicted in both regions until the year 2100.

According to the negative effects of climate change on the products under study, we should provide solutions to avoid the harmful effects and to adapt to the climatic conditions. This includes changing the region's cultivation pattern, managing optimal resources and producing climate change resistant seeds. Therefore, it can be stated that the region (1) has a comparative advantage in the production of onion and the region (2) in the production of tomato.